Yesterday afternoon, former Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor announced his intent to enter the 2011 Supplemental Draft. Sitting beside his agent Drew Rosenhaus, Pryor apologized to his former college coach Jim Tressel, and said he was looking forward to moving on to the next stage of his life. Good for him.
Rosenhaus then took the platform and in a sometimes (unintentionally) funny soliloquy, made a very bold prediction: that Pryor would be selected in the first round of the Supplemental Draft.
I understand it’s an agent’s job to pump his client up, but this particular prediction really got me under my skin. For those of you unfamiliar with how this draft works, the basic premise is this: if a team uses a first round pick, they forfeit their first round pick in April’s draft. If they use a fourth round pick, they lose that in April. Simple enough. Here are a list of reasons why history says Pryor has no shot to be taken that high in this draft:
- Since the Supplemental Draft went to its current eligibility rules (only players who planned on playing in college but were unable to do so) in 1993, exactly zero players have been taken in the first round. Not one. No team has thought it wise to give up a first round choice in April to grab someone in the summer.
- Also since 1993, no team has selected a QB in the Supplemental Draft.
- The last time a team took a shot on a QB in the Supplemental Draft was 1992, when the Giants selected Duke’s Dave Brown.
- Only five quarterbacks have EVER been taken in the Supplemental Draft: Brown, Timm Rosenbach (Cardinals), Steve Walsh (Cowboys), Bernie Kosar (Browns), and Dave Wilson (Saints).
- Those five QB’s went on to average 52 touchdown passes for their careers and 55 interceptions with an average QB rating of about 69.2.
- If you take Kosar out (he and his agent bullied their way into the Supplemental Draft so he could go where he wanted to go–and that loophole was later closed), the other four guys averaged 34 career TD passes, 47 career interceptions, and had a QBR of 66.0–not exactly a stellar set of numbers.
The point is this: there is great risk involved in selecting a player in the first round of the Supplemental Draft because of what you’re giving up. For a team like the Patriots, who currently have three first round selections in 2012, it might have been worth taking the chance, but they already took their QB gamble for the year on Ryan Mallett.
I understand that Rosenhaus is there to build hype around Pryor and I’m not predicting whether or not he’ll be a good NFL player, all I’m saying is that I think history shows us that a team taking Pryor in the first round of the Supplemental Draft is something that is highly unlikely–something Rosenhaus probably knows.
The opinions, analysis and/or speculation expressed by The Finsiders Blog represent those of individual writers, and unless quoted or clearly labeled as such, do not represent the opinions, policies or desires of the Miami Dolphins organization, front office, coaches and executives. Writers' views are formulated independently from any inside information and/or conversation with Dolphins officials, including the coaches and scouts, unless otherwise noted.