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Math Behind Moving Up To No. 3
By on April 16, 2012 at 3:35 pm

As we’ve approached this month’s draft, several suitors have emerged for Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill, making it very possible that someone will need to move up to take him.

If the Dolphins are interested in selecting Tannehill, they will need to try to gauge how other teams feel about him. Would the Browns, who own the fourth pick, take him? Is there another team–the Chiefs or Eagles, perhaps–willing to jump the Dolphins and Browns? The Vikings have expressed a willingness to trade the No. 3 pick, more than likely to a team who covets Tannehill. Maybe it will turn out being a none-of-the-above scenario.

But what would it actually cost to move up to No. 3?

ESPN’s James Walker used ESPN.com’s draft-pick value chart to determine the value of the pick. 

Minnesota’s No. 3 pick is worth 2,200 points on the scale, 800 more than the Dolphins’ eighth pick. So, in order to complete a potential trade with the Vikings, the Dolphins would need to make up the difference with several additional picks.

Once you reach the second round, the value of the picks begin the drop sharply. The Dolphins’ second-round pick–No. 42 overall, the tenth pick in the second round–is worth just 480 points. In any trade with to move up to N0. 3, the Dolphins would likely need to sacrifice their first, second, one of their thirds and an additional late-round pick.

It’s a pretty steep price to pay just to move up five spots. But, of course, it isn’t solely about the tangible worth of the pick; it’s about how you value Tannehill. Is he worth it? Or would it more beneficial to stay your ground and select a handful of players instead?


Please Note:
The opinions, analysis and/or speculation expressed by The Finsiders Blog represent those of individual writers, and unless quoted or clearly labeled as such, do not represent the opinions, policies or desires of the Miami Dolphins organization, front office, coaches and executives. Writers' views are formulated independently from any inside information and/or conversation with Dolphins officials, including the coaches and scouts, unless otherwise noted.
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FinFanJim says:

I know for a fact Steve and Jeff read these comments so thats why I’m posting. It would be ABSURD to trade up for Tannenhill given #8 brings VERY healthy prospects to us. I’d rather see us get a guy like Quinten Coples who is a GUARANTEED All-Pro next year than a guy like Tannenhill who MAY pan out to be a slightly above average QB. I know Mike wants him but he’s not a “plug-and-play” guy like we would’ve had with Matt Flynn. Blackmon may slip our way too. It’s just a dumb idea all together to even think about Tannenhill til our 2nd round pick, and trust me HE WILL BE THERE FOR THAT PICK!

FinFromBegin says:

I thought we were going to get a chance to see Devlin when he was brought up from the practice squad at the end of last season. He’s a very accurate passer and I’d like to see him in a game environment. If they played him I missed it.

FinFanInSATX says:

Sounds like it’s unanimous…don’t move up to draft Tannehill! I like where the Fins are currently situated, as well as 24 other teams who would like to move up to their spot and grab the player they would like for their team. If anything, look to draft down and grab more picks. Tannehill will be available in the mid first, early second round. Since the Fins have Moore and Garrard as current QBs on the roster, why not go to Denver and get Brady Quinn to give him a fair shot? He should’ve been the Fins’ QB back in 2006 instead of Ted Ginn, Jr.! Just saying…Go Dolphins!

dolfan29 says:

Please don’t reach for Tannehill! Everyone talks about intangibles…they’re called that for a reason! It’s because you can’t identify what someone is doing well currently! How about we draft somone that has actual “tangibles”!
If you do trade up…surprise everone and take Kalil! If anything trade later and go after Weeden!!!

vboss96 says:

Moore will be fine for the next 1-2 years.

we should draft Barron, then we should still be able
to draft Osweiler in the 2nd.
We can draft a receiver in the 3rd and 4th.
then draft Kellen Moore in the 5th.

QBs, WR’s, and Safety.

scottsind says:

please don’t trade up. let philbin and Iowa’s OC get some wide recievers!

bigwolve says:

I second that FFB I think Miami is ok and I also been onboard since 1969 when I was 9 so I’ve seen some pretty rough years like you have and think they can pull something outta this draft if they stay where they are!

FinFromBegin says:

Keep our draft choices and take our chances.

That’s my theory too. Go BPA always.