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Math Behind Moving Up To No. 3

Posted By The Finsiders On April 16, 2012 @ 3:35 pm In Football | 9 Comments

[1]As we’ve approached this month’s draft, several suitors have emerged for Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill, making it very possible that someone will need to move up to take him.

If the Dolphins are interested in selecting Tannehill, they will need to try to gauge how other teams feel about him. Would the Browns, who own the fourth pick, take him? Is there another team–the Chiefs or Eagles, perhaps–willing to jump the Dolphins and Browns? The Vikings have expressed a willingness to trade the No. 3 pick, more than likely to a team who covets Tannehill. Maybe it will turn out being a none-of-the-above scenario.

But what would it actually cost to move up to No. 3?

ESPN’s James Walker used ESPN.com’s draft-pick value chart to determine the value of the pick.  [2]

Minnesota’s No. 3 pick is worth 2,200 points on the scale, 800 more than the Dolphins’ eighth pick. So, in order to complete a potential trade with the Vikings, the Dolphins would need to make up the difference with several additional picks.

Once you reach the second round, the value of the picks begin the drop sharply. The Dolphins’ second-round pick–No. 42 overall, the tenth pick in the second round–is worth just 480 points. In any trade with to move up to N0. 3, the Dolphins would likely need to sacrifice their first, second, one of their thirds and an additional late-round pick.

It’s a pretty steep price to pay just to move up five spots. But, of course, it isn’t solely about the tangible worth of the pick; it’s about how you value Tannehill. Is he worth it? Or would it more beneficial to stay your ground and select a handful of players instead?

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URL to article: http://www.thefinsiders.com/blog/2012/math-behind-moving-up-to-no-3

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[1] Image: http://thefinsiders.com/blog/2012/math-behind-moving-up-to-no-3/attachment/tannehill2

[2] ESPN’s James Walker used ESPN.com’s draft-pick value chart to determine the value of the pick. : http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/40942/miamis-price-to-move-up-to-no-3

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